Dopamine and Pattern Seeking
Higher dopamine levels in the brain increase pattern perception and reduce skepticism, making people more susceptible to seeing patterns in randomness, as seen in gambling and belief in pseudoscience.
THE IDEA
A Little More Dopamine
In addition to the story of the left-brain interpreter, we have more physiological evidence of our ingrained pattern seeking, thanks to our growing knowledge of the role of neurotransmitters, the chemicals that are assumed to transport signals between different parts of the brain. It appears that pattern perception increases along with the concentration in the brain of the chemical dopamine. Dopamine also regulates moods and supplies an internal reward system in the brain (not surprisingly, it is found in slightly higher concentrations in the left side of the brains of right-handed persons than on the right side). A higher concentration of dopamine appears to lower skepticism and result in greater vulnerability to pattern detection; an injection of L-dopa, a substance used to treat patients with Parkinson’s disease, seems to increase such activity and lowers one’s suspension of belief. The person becomes vulnerable to all manner of fads, such as astrology, superstitions, economics, and tarot-card reading.
Actually, as I am writing this, there is news of a pending lawsuit by a patient going after his doctor for more than $200,000—an amount he allegedly lost while gambling. The patient claims that the treatment of his Parkinson’s disease caused him to go on wild betting sprees in casinos. It turns out that one of the side effects of L-dopa is that a small but significant minority of patients become compulsive gamblers. Since such gambling is associated with their seeing what they believe to be clear patterns in random numbers, this illustrates the relation between knowledge and randomness. It also shows that some aspects of what we call “knowledge” (and what I call narrative) are an ailment.
Once again, I warn the reader that I am not focusing on dopamine as the reason for our overinterpreting; rather, my point is that there is a physical and neural correlate to such operation and that our minds are largely victims of our physical embodiment. Our minds are like inmates, captive to our biology, unless we manage a cunning escape. It is the lack of our control of such inferences that I am stressing. Tomorrow, someone may discover another chemical or organic basis for our perception of patterns, or counter what I said about the left-brain interpreter by showing the role of a more complex structure; but it would not negate the idea that perception of causation has a biological foundation.
When to use it
In business, when analyzing market trends, be aware that a streak of success might be random rather than a pattern.
In investing, avoid seeing patterns in stock price fluctuations that are actually random noise.
In science, ensure rigorous statistical methods to avoid false pattern detection.
In personal life, when experiencing a run of bad luck, recognize that it may be coincidence and not a meaningful pattern.
FROM THEORY TO EVERYDAY LIFE
In practice
Parkinson's Patient and Compulsive Gambling
A patient sued his doctor for over $200,000 lost while gambling, claiming treatment of Parkinson's disease with L-dopa caused compulsive betting. Increased dopamine can lead to seeing patterns in random numbers, linking knowledge and randomness.
A MOMENT TO REFLECT
Put it to work.
How might your own dopamine levels influence your beliefs in coincidences or patterns in daily life?
Consider a time when you thought you saw a pattern in random events. Was your skepticism lowered by an emotional or chemical state?
What steps can you take to counteract the brain's tendency to see patterns where none exist?
Often confused with
CONTINUE THE CONVERSATION
Source texts
- The Black Swan The Impact of the Highly Improbable With a new section On Robustness and Fragility (Nassim Nicholas Taleb)