Common Thought Experiments
A set of five thought experiments (Double Standard, Outsider, Conformity, Selective Skeptic, Status Quo Bias) that reveal how reasoning changes with motivations, helping to detect motivated reasoning and recognize that initial judgments are contingent, not objective truth.
THE IDEA
COMMON THOUGHT EXPERIMENTS
| The Double Standard Test | Are you judging one person (or group) by a different standard than you would use for another person (or group)? |
| The Outsider Test | How would you evaluate this situation if it wasn’t your situation? |
| The Conformity Test | If other people no longer held this view, would you still hold it? |
| The Selective Skeptic Test | If this evidence supported the other side, how credible would you judge it to be? |
| The Status Quo Bias Test | If your current situation was not the status quo, would you actively choose it? |
• • •
Thought experiments aren’t oracles. They can’t tell you what’s true or fair or what decision you should make. If you notice that you would be more forgiving of adultery in a Democrat than a Republican, that reveals you have a double standard, but it doesn’t tell you what your standard “should” be. If you notice that you’re nervous about deviating from the status quo, that doesn’t mean you can’t decide to play it safe this time anyway.
What thought experiments do is simply reveal that your reasoning changes as your motivations change. That the principles you’re inclined to invoke or the objections that spring to your mind depend on your motives: the motive to defend your image or your in-group’s status; the motive to advocate for a self-serving policy; fear of change or rejection.
Catching your brain in the act of motivated reasoning—noticing when an experiment’s previously invisible flaws jump out at you, or noticing that your preferences change as you switch around supposedly irrelevant details of a scenario—breaks down the illusion that your initial judgment is the objective truth. It convinces you, viscerally, that your reasoning is contingent; that your initial judgments are a starting point for exploration, not an end point.
In the metaphor of the scout, it’s like peering through your binoculars at a far-off river and saying, “Well, it sure seems like the river is frozen. But let me find another vantage point—different angle, different lighting, different lens—and see if things look any different.”
When to use it
When making a decision that affects a group, use the Double Standard Test to ensure fairness across individuals.
When facing a difficult personal choice, apply the Outsider Test to gain perspective and reduce emotional bias.
During a debate, use the Selective Skeptic Test to check if you are being more critical of evidence that contradicts your position.
Before making a change in your life, apply the Status Quo Bias Test to evaluate whether you are sticking with the current situation out of genuine preference or fear of the unknown.
FROM THEORY TO EVERYDAY LIFE
In practice
Double Standard in Political Judgment
Consider how you would judge a political scandal. If a politician from your own party is accused of adultery, you might be forgiving and attribute it to personal struggles. But if the same scandal involves a politician from the opposing party, you might condemn the behavior as evidence of moral failure. The Double Standard Test reveals this inconsistency in your reasoning.
Status Quo Bias in Career Decisions
You are in a stable job that is unfulfilling. The Status Quo Bias Test asks: If your current situation were not the status quo (e.g., if you were unemployed and offered this job), would you actively choose to accept it? This helps you separate fear of change from genuine preference.
A MOMENT TO REFLECT
Put it to work.
Think of a recent disagreement. Could you apply the Outsider Test to see if your perspective would change if you were an impartial observer?
When evaluating a policy, ask yourself: if the status quo were different, would I actively choose the current state?
Consider a belief you hold strongly. How would you judge the evidence if it supported the opposite view? (Selective Skeptic Test)
CONTINUE THE CONVERSATION
Source texts
- The Scout Mindset (Julia Galef)