Checklists (Mental Model)

CHECKLISTS

Use these questions when setting a goal, making a choice, solving a problem, or assessing a claim. Select the questions that matter to the decision; the list is a prompt for investigation, not a requirement to answer everything each time.

Principles to use

• Use the big ideas that underlie reality
• Understand what something really means
• Simplify
• Use rules and filters
• Know what I want to achieve
• Find and evaluate alternatives
• Understand consequences and their consequences on the whole
• Quantify
• Search for and base things on evidence
• Think things through backward
• Remember that big effects come from large combinations of factors
• Evaluate the consequences if I'm wrong

What is the issue?

• What's the question? What is this really about?
• What's the essence or nub of the issue? What is then the key question?
• Relevant? Solvable? Important? Knowable? Utility- applicability?
• Do I understand what the subject is all about? In order to have an opinion on a subject I need some relevant data and basic knowledge about the subject, otherwise just say: "I don't know".
• Is my judgment here better than other people’s?
• What must I predict here and is it predictable?
• Is a decision needed? What happens if I don't deal with this? Is this something I can do anything about? Should "I" do this?
• Over what period of time am I considering this issue? Where am I at present? From whose point of view?
• Simplify by deciding big "no-brainer questions" first and begin from where I am.

Understand what it means

• Translate words and ideas in terms I understand. Do I understand what words and statements really mean and imply? Does it mean anything? Will it help me make useful predictions on what is likely to happen?

• Do I understand how and why something works and happens? What is it doing? Why does it do that? What is happening? How and why is this happening? What is the consequence of this (observation, finding, event, experience...)?
• Definitions and implications?

Filters and Rules

• Use filters incl. rules and default rules - what test(s) can I make?
• Adapt to my psychological nature, abilities, advantages, and limitations
• Consider values and preferences and therefore priorities and what I want to avoid

What do I want to achieve or avoid, and how will I measure it?

• What future "value" do I want to achieve? Target numbers? Target effects? Time horizon?
• Assume I have already reached my target. What would this imply in numbers and effects? What must then have been achieved? Is it (target) reasonable? Is it reasonable if I reverse this to the present?
• Do I have ways to measure to what degree my goal is being achieved? Key variables or components of yardstick?
• If I achieve this what will happen? Do I want that to happen?
• Can I break my goal into short-term goals with deadlines?
• What is my real reason for doing this? Is it because I want to or because I have to? Have I stated my goal from internal and external realities or am I biased now or influenced by some psychological forces?
• Can I express my goal in a way that makes it easier to see how it is going to be achieved?
• Is this the true goal for what I want to achieve?

What is the cause of that?

• To achieve my goal I must understand what causes my goal to be achieved
• What is the equation for goal and what evidence do I have for that?
• What don't I want to achieve? What causes non-goal and what can I do to avoid that? What must I not do or what must I avoid?
• What variables influence the system? What are the critical forces and variables, the ones that account for the main outcome? What is the key unknown? What is the certainty with which I can evaluate, optimize ... the different variables?
• Which variables are dependent on other variables (or situation, environment, context, timing, behavior) and which ones act independently of each other?
• What force causes a variable to be achieved? What produces the force(s)? Are there short and long-term forces? What is their relative strength? How do they combine and interact and what are the effects? How can I get many forces to operate together in the same direction? What lack of force would destroy the system? What produces this force? How predictable are they? What can the forces in place rationally expect to cause? What forces are temporary and which ones are permanent? How will the system change as the forces that act on the variable change?
• How resistant is the system to changes in its variables or the forces acting on them?
• What happens if scale, size, strength, intensity, duration, environment, or participants change? Consider wanted and unwanted effects over both the short and long term.
• What happens when small causes accumulate over time? Which forces could sustain, reverse, or stop the change?
• What would create a critical mass or tipping point? Are there barriers, catalysts, inflection points, or limits?
• Does changing a variable alter the system’s properties or the relationships between variables? What are the effects on the whole system and the final outcome?
• Is there a delay before effects appear? What feedback could accelerate or reverse them?
• Which variables can I change, and which can others change? Who can act, how, and when?
• Which changes would help achieve the goal, and how could I measure their size and effect?
• How sensitive is the conclusion to my assumptions? What happens if I hold a variable constant, change one at a time, or increase one while decreasing another?
• What could change in the environment? Would optimizing one variable create other advantages or disadvantages?
• Do the variables and relationships I have identified still apply when the conditions change?
• Are there exceptions to the equation and why? What conditions are required to achieve goal? Has my goal different cause short-term and long-term? Is the cause time-dependent? Can I deduce the cause by observing the effects? Have I looked upon the system from different angles and viewpoints? What does the measurement of the subject depend on?
• What is the major constraint that limits the goal from being achieved?

What available alternatives do I have to achieve my goal?

• Judge alternatives in terms of goal, subject in question, rules and filters, cause and effect, human behavior, evidence, counter evidence, simplicity and opportunity cost of money, time, other resources, effort, understanding, risk and mental stress.
• What evidence (incl. models) do I have that these alternatives are most likely to achieve goal?
• Are they depending on time horizon or event?
• What are the likely consequences of each action? What possible outcomes can happen? Likelihood? How desirable is each consequence?
• Do I forego any future opportunities if I make a specific action now?

What are the consequences?

• Find out which alternatives are most likely to achieve my goal by estimating their likely consequences
• If I do this, what will happen? Why will this not happen?
• What are the likely (logical) wanted and unwanted (or unintended) consequences (quantitative and qualitative) and consequences of consequences (immediate and over the course of a long period) of each alternative/event (proposition) factoring in relevant variables?
• What are the different scenarios and outcomes that can happen? What is likely to happen short and long-term based on the evidence?
• What can help me make predictions on consequences or if something is likely to be true or false?
• What must happen for the goal to be achieved? How likely is it that the necessary events will happen and happen to me? What do the probabilities favor? What will happen if I reverse the proposition?
• What are the uncertainties that can significantly influence the outcome? What unintended consequences are there due to repeating effects, complications ... ? Is the net effect positive? Do the consequences predict anything else? What else does this mean?
• What are the consequences if this is true or false?
• Have I considered the whole system from different viewpoints? Have I considered social, financial, physical and emotional consequences? What are others likely to do? What are my experiences of earlier behavior? What happens when others do the same?

Bias

• Is there any reason for bias due to self-interest or psychological influences that may cause misjudgment?
• Is this a biased statement or a fact? What are factual judgments and what are value judgments?
• How reliable is he? Is he competent enough to judge? Credentials? What is his purpose with this? Does he have any motive to lie? How does he know that this is true?

The hypothesis

• Based on what I want to achieve; test statement implied by goal or statement for consequences.
• For every alternative ask: Is this alternative likely to achieve my goal (true)? For proposition ask: Is this proposition likely to be true?
• How can I test (testability) if this is true? Can I try to prove it is false before I try to see if it's true?
• What do I need to know if I shall test this statement? I must first find out the equation for what causes the statement to be true so I know what is the most important I need to know the future true outcome of and then search for the evidence for and against that this will be achieved. What is the statement that should be proved?
• What is the simplest hypothesis?

Look for evidence and judge the evidence

• How likely is it that the key cause (for goal, non-goal, and proposition) will be achieved?
• When evaluating statements or true/false, look for meaning, motives, causes, consequences and evidence for and against.
• If this were true what would the consequences then imply? Are the consequences of it not being true illogical or unbelievable? Does it have any predictability?
• How and where can I find the representative evidence if this is true? What is given? What are unquestionable truths? Will the test or other ways of measure give the same results when repeated (reliable)? Can I test for consequences (verifiable)? Is the evidence based on what is known and have I interpreted the data correctly (valid)? What evidence do I have? Evidence against? What grounds do I have for accepting that evidence? Weight of evidence? What is the quality of the evidence? How credible is the evidence? Dependent on time, environment? Too small sample? Does the statement agree with the available evidence? Does it violate any scientific laws or laws of nature?
• What representative information do I have? What is happening by observation? Can I do an experiment to confirm my guess? Does it agree with experiment?
• What is the track record (case rate, base rate frequency, variability, average rate, degree of randomness, my own experiences, environment, players, and other relevant factors for the case) on what happened (worked and not) in the past? Is there any reason to believe that this record isn't representative for what is likely to happen in the future? What can make the future a lot different than the past? What's been permanent and what hasn't?
• How long can this continue? What is the major cause(s) now? What force(s) can make it continue, initiate a change, or stop it and why? Is it likely?
• If I get evidence that is the opposite of my previous convictions I must ask: How does this happen? What is going on here? What evidence do I have? What grounds do I have for accepting the evidence?

Disprove my (or others) conclusion by thinking like a prosecutor

• Consider causes for misjudgments
• How can I test and prove that my idea and conclusion is wrong? What reasons are there why I might be wrong? Where can I find the evidence that suggests I am wrong? How credible is my evidence? What facts and evidence disagree with my conclusion/idea?
• What major assumptions have I built the case on? Are they built on reality? Are their consequences logical? Has anyone proved that my assumptions are right? What are the consequences if my beliefs and assumptions are wrong?
• What have I ignored or overlooked? Better alternatives? Have I ignored evidence? Have I taken into account the limitations when humans are involved? What factors are uncertain and why? Have I just projected present trends? What have I misinterpreted? Have I used the right definitions? Did I consider and combine all the relevant factors? Have I used the appropriate measure/yardstick? Did I go wrong in the measurement? Have I confused cause and correlation? What about if my goal is shaped by what I believe is true but it isn't? Are there random or systematic errors? What other causes can explain my results? Have I considered the whole system and that interacting parts sometimes can vary in unexpected and unwanted ways?
• Bias for my own ideas? Is my ego getting in the way of making an intelligent decision? Will I really beat the historical average/record? Have I looked for contrary effects?
• What do I not see? What is the significance of this? Does an inversion of the assumption lead to a logical absurdity? Is the opposite more likely? Is there any contrary evidence? What evidence can prove it is false (or not achieving goal)? What experimental (or experience, observation... ) evidence are there that it's false? More evidence in favor of that? What causes it to be false?
• Meaning? Can I show that the consequences of it being true are unbelievable? What is the implied effect if I trace it out mathematically? Would the opposite of the statement be more likely? If yes, the proposition is probably false.

What is the downside?

• How can I be hurt? What could possibly go wrong? What can turn this into a mistake? What would the consequences be?
• How often do things go wrong? Surprise factors? What can happen that will dramatically change the outcome?
• What is the worst thing that could happen - the nightmare scenario? How likely is that? What will I do if it does? What are the consequences if things go from bad to worse? And what are then the consequences?
• What are the consequences if I get two or three forces acting in concert against me? Which alternative has the least harmful net effects?
• Execution risk?
• What do I least like? What am I least sure of?
• Can an advantage give me unwanted consequences? How do I lose an advantage?
• How can I structure the "system" to minimize the influence of negatives? Antidotes to what I don't want happen? Do I have a backup plan for surprises? Can I correct it? What rules can I install to achieve goal and avoid non-goal? Is there a built-in safety factor?

What are the consequences if I am wrong?

• What key thing am I betting on? Do I risk what is important for me for something of relatively low utility for me?
• What is the cost (dollars, time, mental stress etc) of being wrong weighted against the benefit or value of being right compared to the next best available opportunity?
• If I do this because I believe the consequences are in my best interest/it's true but I turn out wrong/it is false, what are the short- and long-term consequences (actual loss and opportunity cost loss) for my goal and can I handle them and/or reverse them?
• If I don't do this because I believe the consequences are not in my best interest/it's false but I turn out wrong/it's true, what are the short- and long-term consequences for my goal and can I handle them and/or reverse them?
• If I don't take a decision at all now because I don't believe it is necessary but I am wrong, what are the short- and long-term consequences for my goal and can I handle them and/or reverse them?

What is the value?

• What is the utility or preference of each of these alternatives to me? Which alternative is most likely to achieve my goal and ultimate objective? Is it really more attractive than the other choices I have?
• What can I use as criteria to judge my alternatives against each other?

• What do I like best if I weigh the alternatives against each other by assigning their characteristics numerical values?
• Will it make a difference? Make an impact? How willing am I to accept certain outcomes?

What yardstick can be used to measure progress or to measure things against?

• What yardstick(s) do I use? What is the yardstick by which the decision is made?
• How can I easily measure to what degree my goals are being achieved? What indicators can I track?
• Does the "system" give people an incentive to behave in a way so that my goal will be achieved? Or does it work against the goal?

How will I act now?

• Can I execute? What specific action(s) do I have to do (must do) now? What do I need to do first?
• Who is going to do what, where, when, why and how?
• Have I decided on where the critical points (time and effects) are?
• Have I installed some kind of control stations and rules? Why is this the right rule? What are the consequences if I don't install this rule (or change my way of doing something)? What administrative and practical actions must I do due to the rule? How much time will it take to follow the rule? Can I control how I follow the rule? Can I install a time-limited rule? Where do the rules not work?

Have I made an active decision?

• Am I prepared to change the decision to reflect new information or new insights on what works and not?
• Is another decision contingent on a specific event happening? Have I evaluated the issue as it exists today? Is the underlying rationale for the decision still there? What new evidence is there that can change the likelihood? Does my way of measuring progress give any clue of what is likely to happen in the future? Events - relevant or irrelevant? Does it make any difference for my goal (independent of time horizon)?

Post mortem or learning from mistakes

• How well did it or didn't it work out? Did I act? Did I do what I said? What did I think at the time? Original reasons compared to reality?
• Why did I go wrong? How? Where? Opportunity cost?
• How can I figure out if this is going to continue? Have I acted on my mistakes? How act to not repeat? What should I have done and didn't do? What should I concentrate on? What must I improve? What must I learn?

What exactly is the problem?

• What do I want to achieve? Why don't I achieve my goal? What happens? How does it happen? Where does it happen and not? When does it happen and not? Who's affected?
• What causes my goal? What interferes with the factors that cause my goal? Symptoms or core cause? What is the single most important limiting factor for reaching my goal? What principles or assumptions do I base this on? What are the consequences if they are wrong? Assuming no limitations, what would be the best course of action? Other consequences?