Beware of Leaders and Narratives That Won't Entertain Doubt
Confirmation bias causes us to selectively look at evidence, and leaders who project absolute certainty often exhibit a single-loop learning mindset that dismisses inconvenient truths. Embracing double-loop learning and a scout mindset allows for challenging and refining deeply held assumptions.
THE IDEA
Beware of Leaders and Narratives That Won't Entertain Doubt
As I have tried to stress throughout this book, the human factor is incredibly pervasive and impacts many things. This explains how we can sometimes deceive ourselves and thus look at facts and evidence selectively, thanks to ‘confirmation bias’. So, we need to have a ‘Scout mindset’ that is curious and prepared to seek alternative perspectives on complex issues.10
However, some leaders behave as if they have no doubts and some even believe they have all the answers. They often feel this very sincerely because they have convinced themselves they are right. For this reason, they can be great at persuading others. But, if you find yourself thinking that you, or someone else, or some organisation has a definitive formula that resolves all doubts and has solutions for everything, you need to recognise this as a warning sign since it may reflect a single‐loop learning mindset. In these circumstances, ‘inconvenient truths’ are dismissed, and you can find increasingly bizarre excuses for things that are happening.
Embracing double‐loop learning (and RCA and systems thinking) will mean you are prepared to see some valued ideas and paradigms challenged, refined, changed or even overturned. And I can say that, in the process of writing this book (and sharing the draft manuscripts with others), I have been forced to fundamentally rethink a range of points that I thought were ‘sorted’ several years ago (e.g., the exact number and types of the eight ways to understand why).
So, despite my passion for the eight ways to understand why, and the tools and techniques I have been sharing, I know this book is just part of an ongoing conversation with others, hopefully helping us to better tackle the challenges we face now and will face in the future.
When to use it
In a business meeting, after someone presents a solution, assign a team member to argue against it to surface potential flaws.
When evaluating a candidate for a leadership role, ask about a time they were wrong and what they learned from it.
In personal life, before making a major purchase or life decision, actively research reasons not to do it.
During strategic planning, explicitly design scenario analysis to challenge core assumptions about the market.
FROM THEORY TO EVERYDAY LIFE
In practice
CEO Ignores Negative Feedback
A CEO is certain their new product will succeed and dismisses early negative market feedback, attributing it to flawed surveys. They continue investing heavily, ignoring inconvenient data, until the product fails spectacularly. The CEO shows confirmation bias and a single-loop learning mindset.
Scientist Seeks Disconfirming Evidence
A researcher forms a hypothesis but actively designs experiments to test for evidence that could disprove it. When unexpected results appear, they revise their theory, embodying a scout mindset and double-loop learning.
A MOMENT TO REFLECT
Put it to work.
When was the last time you changed your mind about a deeply held belief? What evidence caused that change?
Think of a leader you admire: do they ever entertain doubt or do they project certainty? How does that affect their decision-making?
How can you cultivate a scout mindset in your own daily decision-making, especially when you are certain you are right?
Often confused with
CONTINUE THE CONVERSATION
Source texts
- Beyond the Five Whys Root Cause Analysis and Systems Thinking (James C. Paterson)