Being a Fool in the Right Places
Accept that human cognition involves epistemic arrogance and prediction, but limit foolishness to small, low-stakes matters. Avoid reliance on large-scale predictions that can harm your future, such as economic forecasts, while making predictions for trivial events like a picnic.
THE IDEA
Being a Fool in the Right Places
The lesson for the small is: be human! Accept that being human involves some amount of epistemic arrogance in running your affairs. Do not be ashamed of that. Do not try to always withhold judgment—opinions are the stuff of life. Do not try to avoid predicting—yes, after this diatribe about prediction I am not urging you to stop being a fool. Just be a fool in the right places.
What you should avoid is unnecessary dependence on large-scale harmful predictions—those and only those. Avoid the big subjects that may hurt your future: be fooled in small matters, not in the large. Do not listen to economic forecasters or to predictors in social science (they are mere entertainers), but do make your own forecast for the picnic. By all means, demand certainty for the next picnic; but avoid government social-security forecasts for the year 2040.
Know how to rank beliefs not according to their plausibility but by the harm they may cause.
When to use it
Deciding whether to bring an umbrella based on the forecast for a short walk.
Investing in retirement: avoid relying on long-term economic predictions and instead focus on diversification.
Choosing a career path: make small predictions about job satisfaction but avoid assuming you know the future of an entire industry.
Planning a party: predict attendance and supplies but don't stress over precise numbers.
FROM THEORY TO EVERYDAY LIFE
In practice
Planning a picnic
You can safely make a prediction about the weather for an upcoming picnic and prepare accordingly, accepting that you might be wrong without serious consequences.
Social security forecast
Avoid placing too much trust in government long-term forecasts for social security benefits in 2040, as these are large-scale predictions with high potential harm if wrong.
A MOMENT TO REFLECT
Put it to work.
In what areas of your life do you make predictions that could cause significant harm if wrong?
How can you calibrate your confidence in predictions based on the stakes involved?
Think of a recent small prediction you made—how did it turn out? What did you learn about being a fool in small matters?
CONTINUE THE CONVERSATION
Source texts
- The Black Swan The Impact of the Highly Improbable With a new section On Robustness and Fragility (Nassim Nicholas Taleb)