Appeal to Possibility
A logical fallacy where a conclusion is assumed to be true not because it is probably true, but because it is possible—no matter how improbable.
THE IDEA
Appeal to Possibility
(also known as: appeal to probability)
Description: When a conclusion is assumed not because it is probably true, but because it is possible that it is true, no matter how improbable.
The logical form and original example arguments are absent; the following commentary refers to them.
Example #1:
Explanation: Yes, it is possible that Harvard will accept Brittany to fill some sympathy quota, or perhaps someone at admissions will mix Brittany up with "Britney", the 16-year-old Asian with the 4.0 average who also discovered a vaccine for a rare flu in her spare time. But because Brittany is appealing to possibility, she is committing this fallacy.
Example #2:
Explanation: We cannot assume Jesus was gay based on the possibility alone. If the argument also treats the absence of an outright statement that Jesus was heterosexual as proof of the conclusion, it adds an argument from ignorance.
Exception: When something is argued to be impossible, arguing that it is possible, no matter how improbable, is perfectly acceptable.
Tip: Catch yourself every time you are about to use the word "impossible". Yes, there are many things that are logically and physically impossible, and it is a valid concept and word, but so often we use that word when we really mean "improbable". Calling an unlikely outcome impossible can prematurely rule out an option; calling it possible does not establish that it will happen.
When to use it
Evaluating arguments in debates or media that rely on remote possibilities rather than probabilities.
Making decisions under uncertainty, where weighing likelihoods matters more than mere possibility.
Critical thinking in scientific reasoning: avoiding concluding a hypothesis is true just because it's possible.
Everyday reasoning: not letting 'anything is possible' override realistic assessment of risks and opportunities.
FROM THEORY TO EVERYDAY LIFE
In practice
Harvard Admission
Brittany argues that she will get into Harvard because it's possible (e.g., due to a sympathy quota or an admissions mix-up), ignoring how improbable that scenario is.
Jesus's Sexuality
Someone concludes that Jesus was gay merely because it is possible. Possibility does not establish that historical claim. If the argument also relies on the absence of evidence that he was heterosexual, that is a separate appeal to ignorance.
A MOMENT TO REFLECT
Put it to work.
Think of a time when you accepted a claim because you thought 'it could be true' even though evidence showed it was highly unlikely. What was the outcome?
How does confusing 'impossible' with 'improbable' affect decision-making in high-stakes situations?
When is it actually valid to argue that something is possible, and how can we distinguish that from the fallacy?
Often confused with
CONTINUE THE CONVERSATION
Source texts
- Logically Fallacious - The Ultimate Collection of Over 300 Logical Fallacies