Appeal to Coincidence
An appeal to coincidence dismisses evidence of a pattern or cause as mere chance without adequate support. Chance remains a possible explanation; the error is using it to avoid examining contrary evidence.
THE IDEA
Description
An appeal to coincidence concludes that a result is due to chance despite evidence favoring another explanation. The appeal to luck variation uses luck in the same way.
Logical Form
The source does not supply a logical form or the original statements for its examples.
Example #1
The source discusses fourteen accidents in one year and rejects an explanation of “bad luck”. Repeated accidents warrant investigating driving behavior and conditions, but the count alone does not establish their cause or prove that the driver was at fault.
Example #2
Dwight attributes repeatedly getting caught at school to bad timing. To assess his explanation, we would need evidence about what he did and how incidents were detected. The fragment labels him a troublemaker without supplying that evidence.
Exception
Coincidences happen. An explanation involving chance should be assessed against the evidence, just like a proposed systematic cause.
When to use it
Evaluating repeated safety incidents in a workplace: attributing them to bad luck versus systematic issues.
Investigating repeated low exam performance by considering preparation, test conditions, access needs, and chance instead of assuming a single explanation.
Analyzing a series of coincidental events in a scientific study before concluding a causal relationship.
Reviewing personal habits: when you keep losing your keys, is it 'bad luck' or a need for better organization?
FROM THEORY TO EVERYDAY LIFE
In practice
Example #1: Fourteen accidents in a year
Fourteen accidents in a year prompt a review of the circumstances. Calling them all “bad luck” without examining the evidence would evade the review; declaring driver fault from the count alone would also go beyond what is shown.
Example #2: Dwight’s bad timing
Dwight says he gets caught more often because of bad timing. His claim needs to be compared with evidence about his behavior and the school’s detection practices, rather than accepted or dismissed solely on a label.
A MOMENT TO REFLECT
Put it to work.
Think of a time when you dismissed a pattern of errors or failures as 'bad luck.' What evidence might you have overlooked?
How can you distinguish between a genuine coincidence and a case where the appeal to coincidence is being used to avoid an uncomfortable truth?
In what situations might appealing to chance actually be the correct explanation, rather than a fallacy?
CONTINUE THE CONVERSATION
Source texts
- Logically Fallacious - The Ultimate Collection of Over 300 Logical Fallacies