Anticipating Bad Outcomes and Second-Level Thinking

beginner2 min readbusiness · philosophy · psychology

Prepare for potential failures by imagining what could go wrong and planning responses. Always ask 'And then what?' to consider the consequences of your decisions to avoid short-sighted solutions.

THE IDEA

What Could Go Wrong?

Before an important decision or event, consider likely failures and how you would respond. A board presentation, for example, could be disrupted by a technology failure, a missing file, or an audience that is not engaged. Planning a response can make those problems easier to handle.

THE BAD OUTCOME PRINCIPLE: Imagine what could go wrong as well as what you hope will happen, and prepare responses.

As Seneca said, “We need to envisage every possibility and … strengthen the spirit to deal with the things which may conceivably come about.” You cannot anticipate everything, but you can identify vulnerable points and decide what to do if they fail. Josh Wolfe puts the concern sharply: “Failure comes from a failure to imagine failure.”

THE SECOND-LEVEL THINKING PRINCIPLE: Ask yourself, “And then what?”

Solving an immediate problem changes what happens next. If you are hungry and choose a chocolate bar, consider whether it will keep you satisfied through the afternoon. The answer depends on the situation, but the question extends the decision beyond immediate relief.

For recurring choices, consider the pattern as well as the individual event. A habit can have consequences that are hard to see when you assess each choice in isolation.

When to use it

Strategic business planning: anticipating market shifts or project failures
Personal health decisions: evaluating long-term effects of daily habits
Risk management in projects: creating contingency plans for critical milestones
Investment decisions: considering second-order effects of economic changes

FROM THEORY TO EVERYDAY LIFE

In practice

Presentation to the Board

Imagine all the ways it could go wrong: technology fails, they can’t find the presentation, the audience isn’t engaged. Plan how you’ll overcome each scenario.

Snack Choice

A chocolate bar relieves immediate hunger. Before choosing it as an afternoon snack, consider how long it is likely to keep you satisfied and whether another option would better suit your plans.

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A MOMENT TO REFLECT

Put it to work.

Think of an upcoming important event. What are three things that could go wrong, and how would you respond?
Consider a recent decision you made. What were the second-level consequences that you didn’t anticipate?
How can you incorporate the 'and then what?' question into your daily decision-making process?